فارسى
Journal Journal of Agroecology
View Paper Details
Download Link :
( 1091 Visit ) ( 52 Download )
Publication Information : Volume 6 - Number 2
Type : Research Paper
English Title : Alignment of regional management maize production and climate change in Iran (spatial panel approach)
English Abstract : Introduction: Climate change and its diversity is one of the greatest challenges which will face humanity in this and future centuries and the economic effects of climate change on agriculture have been a concern for policymakers. The effect of climate change on the agricultural sector has been largely harmful: For example, the effects of periodic droughts and floods have always threatened the life of rural populations that depend on agriculture (Ranganathan et al., 2010). According to FAO (2014), an important part of the maize supply in Iran is provided through importation and one of the main reasons for the increase in maize imports over recent years is a decrease in its yield that depends on climatic conditions. Through improvement of domestic production essential steps can be taken towards self-sufficiency in production of this product (Kazemnejad and Gilanpour, 2014). Given that maize is one of the basic agricultural products and considering its importance and strategic role, a survey of the factors affecting production of this product and, in particular, the effect of climatic factors is necessary. So, in this paper the alignment of regional management of maize production and climate change was studied using a spatial model and panel data for 15 provinces during the period 1984-2010.Material and methods: In this research, a spatial econometric approach was used to study the effect of climatic factors on maize production and, due to the type of available data, a panel data approach has been used. Panel data provides a suitable environment for the development of estimation methods and researchers were able to use cross sectional and time series data to discuss issues that it is not possible to study through time series or cross section data alone (Baltagi, 2005). Climatic variables used in this study included the planting temperature, growth temperature, harvest temperature, planting precipitation and growth precipitation of product.Results and discussion: Results of the Moran test for presence of spatial effects in the panel data showed that there is spatial autocorrelation in the data and the spatial autocorrelation coefficient between the provinces is 0.47. This shows that, in order to survey effect of climatic factors on maize production, we need to consider the geographical situation and vicinity in the model. Estimation of the random effect spatial model (derived from a modified Hausman test) in surveying the impact of climate change on maize production showed that the increase in planting temperature has a negative effect on maize production while the square of planting temperature has positive effect on maize production. Also, harvest temperature has a positive effect on maize production and the square of harvest temperature has negative effect on maize production. Planting precipitation has negative effect and growth temperature has positive effect on maize production; also, the effect of the area under cultivation is positive.Conclusion: According to the findings, it is advisable to avoid delaying maize planting in warm places such as Khozestan, Isfahan, Ilam, Yazd, Hormozgan and Semnan or, if it is possible, to use heat resistant maize seeds. In areas where the maize harvest is grown in winter, accelerating the harvest under warmer conditions leads to an increase in production. Moreover, it is better to plant maize in Kurdistan and Ghazvin provinces with little delay which is not affected by extreme rainfall of early spring. In Kurdistan, Lorestan and Ilam provinces that have high growth precipitation, it's better for farmers to be insured against systemic risk.
English Keywords : Climate change, Maize, Panel data, Random effect, Spatial model
Refrences : Adams, R.M., McCarl, B.A., Segerson, K., Rosenzweig, C., Bryant, K.J., Dixon, B.L., Conner, R., Evenson, R.E. and Ojima, D., 1998. The economic effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture. In: Mendelsohn, R. and Neumann, J. (Eds.), The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. pp.1-4.* Anselin, L., 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht.* Baltagi, B.H., Song, S.H. and Koh, W., 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation." Journal of Econometrics. 117, 123.* Baltagi, B. H., 2005. “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data’’, Third ed. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York, USA.* Baylis, K., Nicholas, D. and Piras, G., 2011. Spatial approaches to panel data in agricultural economics: A climate change application. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 43(3), 325–338.* Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. and Harris, I., 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres. 111, 1-21.* Chen, S., Chen, X., and Xu, J., 2013. Impacts of climate change on corn and soybean yields in China. In Proceedings AAEA and CAES Joint Annual Meeting, 4th-6th August, Washington, DC, USA. pp.1-49.* Choukan, R., 2008. Evaluation of harvesting stage and drying temperature on hectoliter weight of maize grain. Pajouhesh and Sazandegi. 80, 33-39. (In Persian with English abstract).* Ghahremanzadeh, M., Golbaz, M., Hayati, B. and Dashti, G., 2014. The Impact of Climate Variables on wheat and corn yield and yield risk in Gazvin province. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 8 (4), 107-126. (In Persian with English abstract).* Elhorst, J.P., 2003. Specification and estimation of spatial panel data Models." International Regional Sciences Review. 26(3), 244-268.* Elhorst, J.P., 2009. Spatial panel data models." In: Fischer, M.M. and Getis, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Germany. pp. 272-282.* FAO, 2010. FAOSTAT. Available online at: http://www.faostat.fao.org.* FAO, 2014. Available online at: http://www.faostat.fao.org.* Huang, H., von Lampe, M. and van Tongeren , F., 2011. Climate change and trade in agriculture. Food Policy. 36, 9-13.* Hausman, J.A., 1978. Specification Tests in Econometrics." Econometrica. 46, 1251.* Hosseini, M., Mollafilabi, A. and Nassiri, M., 2008. Spatial and temporal patterns in Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) yield of Khorasan province and their relationship with long term weather variation. Iranian Journal of Crops Research. 6 (1). (In Persian with English abstract).* Hosseini, S.S., Nazari, M. and Araghinejad, S., 2012. Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research. 44 (1), 1-16. (In Persian with English abstract).* Kapoor, M., Kelejian, H.H., and Prucha, I.R., 2007. Panel data model with spatially correlated error components. Journal of Econometrics. 140(1), 97-130.* Kazemnejad, M. and Gilanpour, O., 2014. Comparing the econometric Methods and artificial neural networks in predict of corn import of Iran. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 22(85), 213-235. (In Persian with English abstract).* Kazempoor, S. and Tajbakhsh, M., 2002. Effect of some anti-transpiration material on vegetative characters, yield and yield components of Maize under limited irrigation. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 32, 205-211. (In Persian with English abstract).* Magehema, A. O., Chang'a, L. B. and Mkoma, S.L., 2014. Implication of rainfall variability on maize production in Morogoro, Tanzania. International Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(5), 1077-1086.* Mahmoodi, A. and Parhizgari, A., 2015. Economic analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yield, crop patterns and gross profit for farmers (case study: Qazvin plain). Growth and Development of Rural and Agricultural Economics. 1(2), 25-40. (In Persian with English abstract).* Mestre-Sanchís, F. and Luisa Feijóo-Bello, M., 2009. Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture. Ecological Economics. 68(3), 896-904.* Moradi, R., Koocheki, A. and Nassiri, M., 2013. Effect of climate change on maize production and shifting of planting date as adaptation strategy in Mashhad. Iranian Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Production Science. 23 (4), 111-130. (In Persian with English abstract).* Munir, A., Hanjra, M. and Ejaz, Q., 2010. Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change. Food Policy. 35(5), 365–377.* Millo, G. and Piras, G., 2012. Spatial panel data models in R. Journal of Statistical Software. 47(1), 1-38.* Mutl, J. and Pfaermayr, M., 2011. The Hausman test in a cliff and ord panel model." Econometrics Journal. 14, 48-76.* Nassiri, M., Koocheki, A., Kamali, G.A. and Shahandeh, H., 2006. Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran. Iranian Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science. 52 (1), 113-124. (In Persian with English abstract).* Niggol Seo, S., 2011. An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America. Ecological Economics. 70(4), 825-834.* Parry, M., Fischer, C., Livermore, M., Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A., 1999. Climate change and world food security: A new assessment. Global Environmental Change. 9, 51–67.* Parry, M.F., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E., 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.* Radmehr, A., 2014. Agricultural Statistics Report. Information and Communication Technology Center., Tehran, Iran.* Ranganathan, C.R., Palanisami, K., Kakumanu, K.R. and Baulraj, A., 2010. Mainstreaming the Adaptations and Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Due to Climate Change. ADBI Working. Tokyo, Japan.* Reilly, J., Baethgen, W., Chege, F.E., Van De Geijn, S.C., Erda, L., Iglesias, A. and Rosenzweig, C., 1996. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.* Travis, J. and Daniel, A., 2012. Agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries: Policy options for innovation and technology diffusion. Food Policy. 37,114–123.* Ward, P. and Shively, G., 2011. Vulnerability, income growth and climate change. World Development. 40(5), 916–927.* Watson, R.T., Houghton, J. and Yihui, D., 2001. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.*
Number Of Pages :
From 73 to 88


Authors :
The AuthorAuthor SequenceOrganizationOrganization ( enter english )AffiliationEmailEducation / Degree
پریسا علیزاده
(Author)
1دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد  parisa.alizadeh67@gmail.com 
محمد قربانی 2دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد  parisa.alizadeh67@gmail.com 
Archived Issues

News
All Rights Reserved Website for Journal Journal of Agroecology .